The year 2026 opens in an economic environment that leaves no room for underestimation. Trade tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, still sensitive rates and moderate growth are putting pressure on corporate liquidity-and with it, credit quality. For those managing credit portfolios or working in recovery, it is time to turn up the heat and structure more robust processes. <\/p>\n
The ABI-Cerved Outlook 2025-27 speaks clearly: the corporate credit deterioration rate will rise to 2.9 percent in 2025<\/strong> (from 2.6 percent in 2024) and reach 3.0 percent in 2026<\/strong>, then stabilize in 2027. We are still far from the peak of 7.5 percent touched in 2012, but the direction is unequivocal: credit risk is growing. <\/p>\n Even more significant is the figure on insolvencies: in Italy there is a +45 percent increase over 2023<\/strong>, with more than 14,000 insolvencies expected in 2025 and a further increase expected in 2026. Those most exposed are mainly corporations with a turnover of less than 10 million euros – that is, the segment of SMEs that make up the productive fabric of our country. <\/p>\n According to the Allianz Trade Report, by the end of 2025, more than 40 percent of companies will have recorded at least one major bad debt.<\/strong> A trend likely to continue over the next year. <\/p>\n Instability does not have a single origin-it is systemic. The main pressure factors are: <\/p>\n Global trade tensions.<\/strong> The duties introduced by the U.S. administration are expected to increase Italian and European exports to the U.S. by +15%, with peaks of up to +50% for some commodity categories. The resulting slowdown in global trade squeezes turnovers and margins, reducing the ability of companies to honor their payment commitments. <\/p>\n Prolonged geopolitical conflicts.<\/strong> Continuing tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East are fueling uncertainty in energy and commodity markets, with cascading effects on production costs.<\/p>\n Increasing bank debt of SMEs.<\/strong> Many firms depend on short-term credit lines to finance working capital. In a still-sensitive rate scenario, this dependence increases financial vulnerability, especially for those operating on low margins. <\/p>\n Customers changing risk profile.<\/strong> As industry analysts point out: those who pay regularly today may become a source of risk tomorrow<\/em>. Continuous monitoring is no longer optional. <\/p>\n The direct impact on credit management<\/strong><\/p>\n For creditor companies-utilities, financial institutions, manufacturing companies, law firms, recovery companies-this scenario translates into very real challenges:<\/p>\n The Bank of Italy, in its Financial Stability Report 2026, confirms that the overall financial situation of businesses is still broadly balanced — but warns that a worsening macroeconomic scenario could affect their confidence<\/em> and, consequently, payment behavior.<\/p>\n In such a fluid environment, it is not the rapid response to individual defaults that makes the difference, but the ability to govern credit as a strategic process<\/strong>. This means: <\/p>\n Market instability is not a transitional phase; it is the new environment in which companies must learn to operate. For those involved in credit management, this means equipping themselves with tools that transform credit management from an operational function to a strategic lever for a company’s financial health. <\/p>\n CreditSuite is designed for exactly that: to support businesses in end-to-end credit governance, from risk analysis to recovery, with an integrated, automated and measurable approach.<\/p>\nThe causes: a context that does not simplify<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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How to respond: from response to governance<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n