Unstable markets, credits at risk

Unstable markets, credit at risk: how to protect cash flows in 2026

The year 2026 opens in an economic environment that leaves no room for underestimation. Trade tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, still sensitive rates and moderate growth are putting pressure on corporate liquidity-and with it, credit quality. For those managing credit portfolios or working in recovery, it is time to turn up the heat and structure more robust processes.

A complicating picture: the numbers to know

The ABI-Cerved Outlook 2025-27 speaks clearly: the corporate credit deterioration rate will rise to 2.9 percent in 2025 (from 2.6 percent in 2024) and reach 3.0 percent in 2026, then stabilize in 2027. We are still far from the peak of 7.5 percent touched in 2012, but the direction is unequivocal: credit risk is growing.

Even more significant is the figure on insolvencies: in Italy there is a +45 percent increase over 2023, with more than 14,000 insolvencies expected in 2025 and a further increase expected in 2026. Those most exposed are mainly corporations with a turnover of less than 10 million euros – that is, the segment of SMEs that make up the productive fabric of our country.

According to the Allianz Trade Report, by the end of 2025, more than 40 percent of companies will have recorded at least one major bad debt. A trend likely to continue over the next year.

The causes: a context that does not simplify

Instability does not have a single origin-it is systemic. The main pressure factors are:

Global trade tensions. The duties introduced by the U.S. administration are expected to increase Italian and European exports to the U.S. by +15%, with peaks of up to +50% for some commodity categories. The resulting slowdown in global trade squeezes turnovers and margins, reducing the ability of companies to honor their payment commitments.

Prolonged geopolitical conflicts. Continuing tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East are fueling uncertainty in energy and commodity markets, with cascading effects on production costs.

Increasing bank debt of SMEs. Many firms depend on short-term credit lines to finance working capital. In a still-sensitive rate scenario, this dependence increases financial vulnerability, especially for those operating on low margins.

Customers changing risk profile. As industry analysts point out: those who pay regularly today may become a source of risk tomorrow. Continuous monitoring is no longer optional.

The direct impact on credit management

For creditor companies-utilities, financial institutions, manufacturing companies, law firms, recovery companies-this scenario translates into very real challenges:

• Lengthening of collection time and worsening of DSO (Days Sales Outstanding)
• Increase in out-of-court and in-court cases
• Increased difficulty in assessing the creditworthiness of existing and potential customers
• Pressure on cash flow that can also impact investment planning

The Bank of Italy, in its Financial Stability Report 2026, confirms that the overall financial situation of businesses is still broadly balanced — but warns that a worsening macroeconomic scenario could affect their confidence and, consequently, payment behavior.

How to respond: from response to governance

In such a fluid environment, it is not the rapid response to individual defaults that makes the difference, but the ability to govern credit as a strategic process. This means:

1. Proactive monitoring of the loan portfolio Don’t wait for a loan to expire to take action. Integrate early warning systems that signal changes in customers’ payment behavior, credit rating trends, or adverse corporate events.
2. Automation of dunning processes At a time of growing file volumes, manual handling does not scale. Automated workflows for monitoring, dunning, and activating out-of-court steps enable timely action and reduce the dispersion rate of recoverable receivables.
3. Integration with databases and ratings The assessment of creditworthiness cannot stop at the time of the initial granting of an overdraft. Continuous hooking with external data sources is needed to intercept signs of deterioration before they translate into defaults.
4. Coordinated management of recovery phases From multichannel communication to the management of out-of-court and court cases: having everything under a single platform makes it possible to reduce time, minimize errors, and ensure complete governance even when volumes grow.
5. Real-Time Reporting and KPIs Knowing at all times what your portfolio’s risk exposure is- by segment, geographic area, and maturity time frame-is the basis for timely and well-founded decisions.

Conclusion

Market instability is not a transitional phase; it is the new environment in which companies must learn to operate. For those involved in credit management, this means equipping themselves with tools that transform credit management from an operational function to a strategic lever for a company’s financial health.

CreditSuite is designed for exactly that: to support businesses in end-to-end credit governance, from risk analysis to recovery, with an integrated, automated and measurable approach.

Want to see how CreditSuite can support your organization in managing credit in this scenario?

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